A Comparative Study of the Pickup Method and its Variations Using a Simulated Hotel Reservation Data

Using a Simulated Hotel Reservation Data Athanasius Zakhary, Neamat El Gayar Faculty of Computers and Information Cairo University, Giza, Egypt [email protected], [email protected], Amir F. Atiya Dept Computer Engineering Cairo University, Giza, Egypt [email protected] Abstract Detailed forecasts are major inputs to modern Hotel Revenue Management Systems. Accurate forecasts are crucial to improve rate and availability recommendations for rooms. The data used for hotel demand forecasting are based on current booking activities (Reservations), historical information regarding daily arrivals or rooms sold. Bookings are recent data that if used adequately can make the forecasting process more responsive to demand shifts. Very little work has been done on forecasting techniques using reservation data. In this paper, we examine in more details a popular forecasting model that uses reservation data, referred to in the literature as the “pickup” method. In particular, we present a new framework for the pickup technique with 8 different variations and compare the results of these variations using a variety of simulated hotel reservations data.